Research & Policy

Work in progress

• • Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle (with Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boer, and Racha Moussa)

  • International Balance Sheets: A Deep Dive (with Seungyub Han and Luciana Juvenal)

Working Papers

• • The Role of Currencies in External Balance Sheets, 2024 (with Luciana Juvenal) [Paper] [Data] (conditionally accepted at Journal of International Economics)

    • supersedes Currencies of External Balance Sheets, 2023 (with Deepali Gautam and Luciana Juvenal) [IMF Working Paper] 

  • An Updated Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation, 2024 (with Gustavo Adler, Giovanni Ganelli, and Daniel Leigh) [IMF Working Paper] [Data]

  • 2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology (with Camila Casas; Giovanni Ganelli; Luciana Juvenal; Daniel Leigh; Pau Rabanal; Cyril Rebillard; Jair Rodriguez; João Tovar Jalles) [IMF Working Paper]

Publication

• • Revisiting External Imbalances: Insights from Sectoral Accounts [WP version]  (Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019)

Policy contributions

• • External Sector Report, 2024 [link] 

  • External Sector Report, 2023 [link]

    • Box 1.1. The Financial Side of Global Imbalances (with Cyril Rebillard)

    • Box 1.2. Trends in Currency Exposures of External Balance Sheets (with Luciana Juvenal)

    • Analytical chapter: External Sector Implications of the Global Dollar Cycle (with Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boer, Allan Dizioli and Racha Moussa)

  • External Sector Report, 2022 [link]

    • Box 1.1. Saving and Wealth Dynamics in the Aftermath of COVID-19 (with Cyril Rebillard)

    • Box 1.2. Current Account Rebalancing: At What Speed? Assessment of Current Account Gaps Historical Persistence (with Cyril Rebillard)

  • World Economic Outlook, April 2022, Chapter 2, Private Sector Debt and the Global Recovery [link]

    •  Box 2.2. Rising Household Indebtedness, the Global Saving Glut of the Rich, and the Natural Interest Rate (with Christina Kolerus)

  • External Sector Report, 2021 [link]

    • Analytical chapter: Fiscal Policy and External Adjustment: What’s Coming?

    • Blog: The Unequal COVID Saving and Wealth Surge [link]

    • Online Annex 1.2. The COVID-19 Crisis and “Downhill” Flow of Capital 

  • Selected Issues paper on Denmark, Current Account Surplus in Denmark, 2022 [link]

  • Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, Analytical Note, The Role of Foreign Exchange Intervention in sub-Saharan Africa’s Policy Toolkit, 2022 [link]

  • Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021 [link]

  • Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Update, IMF Special Series on COVID-19, 2021 [link]

  • Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020 [link]

Other work                         

• • Saving Across the Income Distribution: an International Perspective (with Christina Kolerus and Ying Xu)

  • Retained Earnings and Cross-Border Investment Flows [new draft soon] [poster]

Dormant work  

• Household Wealth and the Net International Investment Position

• The Rise of German Corporate Saving (with Ruo Chen, and Joana Pereira)